Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.866562 2.230819 2.639712 3.131592 3.706068 4.354575 5.140867
2026-02-08 1.347122 1.809961 2.385662 3.149749 4.132035 5.346625 6.955727
2026-02-15 1.031492 1.527674 2.199268 3.164554 4.504160 6.283256 8.807496
2026-02-22 0.806892 1.301007 2.020478 3.127305 4.765474 7.074123 10.539518
2026-03-01 0.619222 1.079755 1.796629 2.969315 4.807647 7.537810 11.842931
2026-03-08 0.505206 0.945285 1.672414 2.928222 4.998354 8.215579 13.508119
2026-03-15 0.421831 0.842692 1.577377 2.910739 5.211017 8.934565 15.295472
2026-03-22 0.383581 0.811523 1.595192 3.079645 5.742273 10.204162 18.072981
2026-03-29 0.340465 0.761867 1.570302 3.166201 6.137442 11.283077 20.635094
2026-04-05 0.309226 0.729185 1.570411 3.295442 6.618571 12.548497 23.623596
2026-04-12 0.268771 0.668823 1.506292 3.291154 6.849712 13.392887 25.949461
2026-04-19 0.225744 0.593698 1.399459 3.185269 6.871107 13.854754 27.623964
2026-04-26 0.188038 0.523634 1.293340 3.068693 6.863677 14.274662 29.287689
2026-05-03 0.164275 0.482312 1.243450 3.064184 7.081904 15.144533 31.879677
2026-05-10 0.144710 0.447331 1.202017 3.071691 7.324682 16.083340 34.686454
2026-05-17 0.125398 0.408498 1.144526 3.033322 7.462202 16.820839 37.156199
2026-05-24 0.103370 0.356475 1.044778 2.879063 7.321497 16.968335 38.439898
2026-05-31 0.089785 0.326020 0.994978 2.838923 7.434970 17.658992 40.902021
2026-06-07 0.078995 0.301528 0.956695 2.821869 7.599620 18.473170 43.691020
2026-06-14 0.075861 0.301362 0.986141 2.986041 8.220298 20.347851 48.916000
2026-06-21 0.070259 0.291435 0.985854 3.070184 8.652088 21.833477 53.401596
2026-06-28 0.066361 0.286613 0.999913 3.195837 9.202296 23.636083 58.730536
2026-07-05 0.059301 0.268300 0.969588 3.191667 9.417050 24.674637 62.409077